Skip to main content

It's all X k D f . X k ; t / C » . t /; and it's that easy!

"Lies, damned lies and statistics", Benjamin Disraeli
Law enforcement,  marketers, social scientists, all use predictive behavioral models in order to understand future behaviors for both individuals and groups.

And if you want a cure for insomnia there are plenty of papers out there that I can recommend that will surely put you to sleep.

All kidding aside Howard D. Teten was the former head of the FBI profiling division. Teten based his pioneering work on the models established by Dr. Paul Kirk, Dr. Hans Gross and Dr. James Brussel.

When Howard Teten had joined the FBI in 1962 a criminal profile division did not exist. It wasn't untl 1973 that Howard Teten and Quantico Behavioral Science Unit  instructor Patrick J. Mullany were able to test their theories in the field.

When a  a seven-year-old girl was kidnapped Teten and Mullany were able to use their profile model to track down the kidnapper, David Meirhofer.

Today criminal profiling is common but during one of the earliest cases of profiling, the arrest of "The Mad Bomber"  George Metesky in 1957, it must have seemed like something straight out of a Sherlock Holmes novel.

George Metesky went on a sixteen year bombing spree in New York City starting 1940. Metesky eluded police for almost two decades despite sending them taunting letters in the mail.

Eventually Dr. James Brussel was called into the NY police department to help. Dr. Brussel studied "The Mad Bomber" letters and accurately predicted the suspect would be in his late forties or early fifties, was a non-native English speaker due to his lack of use of slang in the letters, was a practicing Catholic, probably from eastern Europe, and lived with an older unmarried woman that was either his sister or mother.

Dr. Brussel would work with the NYPD from 1957 to 1972 and Howard Teten would work with the FBI until 1986.

Even though compiling statistical data can be daunting, sorting through reams of information is laborious, and making sense of material is agonizing in the end it is a powerful tool.

Without accurate, reliable information you cannot make accurate decisions. 

For more interesting article on the subject check out:

1. "Towards an environment-sociologic model for prediction of environmental behaviors and investigation of strategic policy alternative" by Kurosh Rezaei Moghaddam and Mahsa Fatemi 

2. Interview of Former Special Agent of the FBI  Howard D. Teten (1962-1986) by Stanley Pimentel

3. International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling, & Prediction official website.  





 













Popular posts from this blog

Zaukus Guitars Marketing Material

Joseph Zaukus is a tremendously talented guitar maker but needed some help with branding and social media marketing.

Zaukus Guitars focused on custom one-offs and didn’t have a product line.

By focusing on two core models, the Supernal and the Youth, Joseph was able to decrease his production time and increase his profitability. 

Powerpoint file available upon requst.

Quick! I need some ad copy!

I was working for a bicycle shop a while and my boss told me that I had to create new signage so we can turn over our shoes and clothing stock quicker.

Like many retail stores, we had more demand for customer service than we had people to go around so the signage needed to be punchy and informative.

I decided on a format that included the product name, who made it and I included a product review blurb I found online. I specifically looked for product reviews from well-known periodicals.

While I found a lot of great reviews I couldn’t find a review for everything we had on hand.

What to do.

What to do.

What to do.

I couldn’t just make something up so I decided to look for some quotes about bicycles.

With a little snooping around I found some great quotes about cycling from literary sources, Hemingway mostly, and from some well-known cyclists, specifically Eddy Merckx and Jacquie Phelan.

With our new signage customers that didn’t want a hands-on approach with sales were able to help thems…

Net Neutrality and Me; What It means for Nonprofit Marketing

I’ve worked both as a freelance writer and in the nonprofit world.

As a writer I’ve been given an enormous amount of freedom to write what I like to. Other than having some stories die a shelf death or having some stories being edited for brevity I’ve experienced little in the way of anything that can be remotely construed as censorship.

I also have a background in US Constitutional law so I also understand that my freedom of expression is not absolute. For instance I can’t engage in hate speech, I can’t incite violence or encourage people to commit illegal or dangerous acts, I can’t give “material support” to domestic or foreign terrorists, not all of my speech is protected if I’m a public employee, slander, liable or defamation are not protected speech, publishing confidential material, and lastly I cannot make true threats.

If the FCC has its way freedom of speech, particularly for nonprofits may be severely curtailed. This year, FCC Chair, Ajit Pai, wants to repeal net neutrality.

I…